Suez Returns. Your $91 Surcharge Doesn't.

The big picture:

My read centers on the two clocks in a freight deal. The base rate is repriced once a year. A surcharge is repriced whenever the carrier says so, and this one says “until further notice” [2].

The return is no longer a forecast. Container ship tonnage through the Suez Canal reached 72.1 million tonnes in the first eight months of 2026, up 54.2% on the same eight months of 2025, per the canal authority’s 16 September communique [4]. Freightos reports estimates that transits fully recover during the first quarter of next year, and adds a warning carriers will not enjoy: the return “increases the overcapacity risk for carriers in 2027”, if geopolitics allow it to complete [1]. Drewry’s base case, as reported by The Loadstar, has transits back to 80% of their pre-diversion level by February 2027 [3].

So the base rate heads down, in time, as more ships make more round trips. The surcharge heads nowhere. It is flat and open-ended. Mediterranean spot rates rose 3% in the week to 20 October, and Asia–North Europe rose 6%, on general rate increases aimed at the 2027 contract round [1]. Carriers are pushing the rate up while they restore the capacity that will pull it down. The per-unit line is how both can be true at once.

By the numbers

• $91 per TEU — Surcharge switch: a piracy risk charge of $55 plus a canal charge of $36, applied from 19 October 2026 “until further notice” on Asian cargo bound for the listed Mediterranean and Black Sea ports [2].
• $3,927 per FEU — Mediterranean spot: Asia–Mediterranean rates per forty-foot equivalent unit (FEU) rose 3% in the week to 20 October, and Asia–North Europe climbed 6% to $3,442 [1].
• $43 per slot — Canal saving: Drewry’s slot cost comparison puts the Suez saving at about $1 million per round voyage, or $43 per slot, against the Cape route [3].
• $2.18 million — Surcharge ceiling: The Loadstar’s own sum for a fully loaded 24,000 TEU ship at $91 per unit, which is about 2.2 times the saving above (desk arithmetic on the two figures) [3].

What I’d watch:

The bid document is where this bites, and the operators closest to it are splitting the two numbers apart. A rate sheet showing one all-in figure hides which half expires.

• The split: the two halves now carry different clocks, so the only place the difference shows is a rate sheet that lists them apart.
• The routing question: shippers on an Asia–Europe call earlier this month said some carriers switch to Suez at short notice, and that not every insurer carries Suez cover, so cover has to be arranged fast [3].
• The corridor count: the extension names Derince and Port Said West plus a long list of North Africa, West Mediterranean and Adriatic ports, including Atlantic calls such as Casablanca and the Canaries that no Suez routing serves [2].
• The next signal: whether the 2027 bids closing this quarter treat the $91 as a standing line or a time-boxed one. That tells you more about next year’s cost than the spot index does.

The catch

Between the lines, the surcharge is not a canal fee. Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) puts both charges down to “the security situation of piracy risk around the Arabian Peninsula”, and applies them to all cargo moving from Asia to the listed ports [2]. Nothing in the notice ties either amount to a ship that transits Suez. A shipper whose boxes go round the Cape of Good Hope pays the same $91. That makes it a lane charge, not a share of a routing cost.

The arithmetic that makes this vivid is also the soft part. Drewry’s $1 million saving covers slot costs only, and the analysis says it leaves out war-risk premiums and canal discounts [3]. The $2.18 million figure is The Loadstar’s own sum for a full 24,000 TEU ship, offered as a theoretical maximum [3]. Set them side by side and the charge is roughly 2.2 times the saving, but each figure is a ceiling or a floor of a different thing.

One carrier’s schedule is not the market. I have MSC’s notice and nobody else’s, so how far the pattern travels is an open question. A fast fall in base rates next year would also give shippers a reason to raise the add-on in the same talk.

At a glance

• The Big Shift: Carriers are moving services back through the Suez Canal, with estimates that transits fully recover during the first quarter of 2027, while a $91 per-TEU surcharge that began on 19 October applies to Asian cargo bound for Mediterranean and Black Sea ports with no end date.
• Why It Matters: The return adds capacity and should push the base rate down. The surcharge sits on top of that rate, is charged by lane rather than by routing, and does not fall with it. A 2027 freight budget built on the direction of spot rates can miss the line that actually grew.
• What I’d Watch: Next year’s contract bids, and how they treat the two halves of the price.
• Split line items: a base rate and a surcharge listed apart, each with its own expiry date.
• Suez insurance cover: whether cargo cover for Red Sea routings is arranged before a carrier switches a service.
• Carrier followers: whether other lines publish the same per-TEU charges on the same lanes.
• The Catch: The charge is put down to piracy risk, not to the canal, so a shipper routing round the Cape still pays it. The gap between the canal saving and the surcharge bill also rests on an analyst’s slot-cost model and a full-ship maximum.

Related reading

• Your Fuel Surcharge Hides Three Negotiated Numbers — more on Supply Chain & Operations
• A Late Container’s Bill Carries Two 30-Day Clocks — more on Supply Chain & Operations
• Nearshoring Doesn’t Move the Trade Case — more on Supply Chain & Operations

Sources

[1] Judah Levine, “Red Sea container traffic set for full return in Q1 — October 20, 2026 Update”, Freightos, 2026-10-20 — https://www.freightos.com/freight-resources/red-sea-container-traffic-set-for-full-return-in-q1-october-20-2026-update [2] MSC, “Piracy Risk and Suez Canal Surcharges — Trade from Asia to Mediterranean (inc. West Med, East Med, Adriatic and North Africa)”, 2026-09-30 — https://www.msc.com/en/newsroom/customer-advisories/2026/september/prs-and-scs-trade-from-asia-to-mediterranean [3] Gavin van Marle, “Shippers stressing over risks from Suez Canal and Red Sea transits”, The Loadstar, 2026-10-12 (quoting Drewry’s Simon Heaney) — https://theloadstar.com/shippers-stressing-over-risks-from-suez-canal-and-red-sea-transits [4] “Return to Suez gathers pace”, Upply market insights, 2026-10-08, reporting the Suez Canal Authority communique of 2026-09-16 — https://market-insights.upply.com/en/return-to-suez-gathers-pace